The Weather Page
Meterology is a science that is often hampered by the weather.

On this page our farming weather-forecaster, Reliable Robin offers his long-range weather predictions.They refer mainly to the South West of England , where Robin gains local knowledge. His prediction for the 2010 summer was for it to be very wet!

Farmers are rushing around on the dry days...

Autumn is here. Update 28/09/09

Robin was very right about the showery August. Luckily September turned out nicer than he predicted and the last two weeks provided something of an Indian Summer. In Mid-Devon there has been relatively little sunshine but it has been nice and dry with little wind. Conditions for the animals have been excellent even if grass growth has slowed right down. Exmoor has seen heavier cloud but the coast has enjoyed some wonderful sunshine and both Devon and Cornish beaches have had great days for the tourists who have taken a chance on a late holiday. They sure did better than the poor people who arrived in July, the most miserable month for years. Robin sauys that he, like most farmers, is just finishing the maize. Some people are still getting late straw in. It has been very lucky for the farmers that this dry spell arrived, just in time to get everything in. Even late silage is now wrapped. The growing season was good. Fruit-crops are fantastic, especially the apples. Robin has predicted early frosts and cold winds in October, let us hope he’s wrong again. This year sloes are plentiful and the black-berries are very sweet.

Preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.
Signals for precipitation slightly favour near or above average rainfall over much of northern Europe, including the UK.

Met Office Prediction for Winter 2009/2010 issued September 29th

Robin had mixed luck with his autumn forecast. He was right in that it has been a very dry spell. We have had a lot more sunshine than he predicted though! Nobody is at all cross with him about that mistake though. We got a very fine start to the autumn inSeptember. October has carried on with mainly dry weather with some days of rain. All in all the winds predicted by Robin have stayed away. It has been blissfully still, in fact. So far.

September/October summary, 23/10/09

November Report and update on Robin’s Winter Forecast. 09/11/09
The last couple of weeks have seeen a lot of rain in Devon. The rivers are right up and mud is making it’s seasonal return. Nevertheless, grass has kept growing and animals are still out everywhere. Roses have flowered beautifully and there have only been a few wind days so far.
Robin says this is all going to change now:

The nights will be markedly colder for the rest of November. December will see some fog, especially on the hills, it will be wet up until Christmas but we’ll still have the pattern of the odd nice day. Robin thinks cold weather will come in for the new Year.There will be more winds. Christmas is unlikely to be snowy, in Robin’s opinion.

Wet and Windy it is!16/11/09
November has certainly started off just as Robin said it would, in the Westcountry. More gales are forecast by the Met office for next week. it is a bit tiresome but to be expected. It is late autmn/early winter after all. The lovely October lulled us into compalcency. Now it is time to fasten and batten down every movable thing. Ther Coastguards are asking us to want people against setting off in tiny craft at the moment, let alone windsurfing to France just for the thrill.

It is a bit wet! The scene on the left is from Cumbria, which has had it even wetter than the Westcountry. Our countryside weather-forecaster, Robin, is nodding sagely and looking rather smug. It has been mild so far though.
This weekend is forecast by the Met-Office to be very wild and windy again. Stay in bed if this is possible. Indeed, the 21st saw terrible wind and rain on Exmoor. Luckily it is not low-lying. But the rivers will be very high by tomorrow morning, Robin says. He can be rather gloomy at times.

Even More rain.21/11/09

 We’re delighted to tell you that the Met Office has now published it’s winter forecas( 27/11/12)t. it is most excellent, as you can see: Met Office Long range Forecast:
For northern Europe, including the UK, there is a 20% chance of a colder winter, a 30% chance of an average winter and a 50% chance of a milder winter.
RainfallFor northern Europe, including the UK, signals for precipitation are weak, with near equal chances for each of the three categories. There is a 30% chance of a drier winter, a 35% chance of an average winter and a 35% chance of a wetter winter

In order to help us understand that the weather may either be mild, or possibly cold, the Met Off ice have publsihed these imppressive charts, to help us interpret the difficult statistics..We’re very happy to reproduce this conclusive evidence that this time the Met Office has got it RIGHT! They have covered all options. I think they ought to have left 5% unaccounted for, in case of freak weather conditions...But, no, everything is now in order and will behave.

 We’re moving Robin’s Prediction up here, so that it is easier to find. It was made on the 09/11/09
Reliable Robin said:
Wet and windy weather will prevail for the rest of November.
He says it will feel very chilly after the nice autumn. We’re going to return to normal November temperatures.

See top of page!

Global Warming? 15.12.09 We have asked Robin his countryman’s opinion on global warming. He stated very simply that he thinks politicians are responsible for most of the hot gases.
As he says, there have been coral reefs off the Welsh coast in times past and there have been tropical forests where there are now only bogs. The climate has changed many a time before and many species have failed to adapt and died out. Others have survived. If you can only eat bamboo, a cold climate becomes impossible. Maybe we’re affecting the climate with our emissions, says Robin, but maybe times were changing anyway. And the evidence of change is not very conclusive yet. Change is slow.

Robin was shaking his head and cursing, when visited by our reporter. The water had frozen and he was trying to thaw it out by pouring boiling water from his kettle onto the pipe-fittings. His beef-cattle were bellowing thirstily and Robin was not in a good mood.
 “Yes,” he said very grumpily, “ I expect this effing weather to last over Christmas now, curse it”, he added with a distinct lack of Christmas Spirit. Our reporter produced a small present in the shape of a bottle of Malt Whisky, as a thank you to Robin, whose page is very popular. Robin smiled briefly and said that it would be good for his arthritic knees.They warn him of cold weather coming, he explained. He is hopeful of a crisp few days over the coming week . So far his knees are not indicating heavy snow in the South west. So far..He tells us that his knees are only able to predict the next few days and they don’t like cold, wet conditions.

The Christmas Weather? More chaos on British roads caused by snow! 18/12/09

The Mid Devon scene is rather bleak just now.06.01.10
Our rpeorter visited Robin, on his farm, just before the snow.
He was unusually happy, on this cold but sunny day. ‘My heifers are thriving,’ he said, pointing at a group of youngsters happily munching some good silage in the frosty conditions.’I made that stuff in June’, he added, proudly, ‘just before it started to rain. ‘ The reporter thought it unwise to remind Robin about the predictions for a dry summer. ‘ Animals are fine in dry cold’, she agreed with the old farmer.
‘What about the rest of the winter?’ Is it over now? ‘ she asked him, hopefully. ‘Are your knees feeling stiff?’ the reporter asked, mindful that Robin’s knees are a good short-term indicator.
Robin subsided into his usual gloomy look: His prediction is just above.

 Robin’s Late Winter and Early Spring prediction for 2010 issued 06.01.10:
 It will stay cold with more snow yet to come in January, Robin stated. February will be cold but with less snow. It will be a cold winter, overall, of the old-fashioned type, he added. Late January and early February should get some excellent sunny days. ‘You can cancel your skiing holiday!’ he told the reporter, with a twinkle in his eye. He knows full well she is no skiing enthusiast. ‘ Some better tyres might prove a good investment though,on these icy roads’, he carried on. There might be a bit of a thaw later on in the month , but the cold is far from done with.
March will come in warmer, but start off like a lion with wind and rain, he predicted.
Moreover, Robin now said he wants a bonus as the Chief Meterologist at the Met-Office has recieved a 20%pay-rise, in spite of being wrong most of the time!

January, February and Early Spring according to Robin, who wants a bonus.

The Met office is a world class organization, according to the BBC. They say we’re lucky to have it. We certainly pay for it, 20%bonuses to the leading forecasters.. Now the Met office admits to a “slight warming bias”

The Met Office has now admitted to BBC News that its annual global mean forecast predicted temperatures higher than actual temperatures for nine years out of the last 10.
This means that they work on the assumption that 2031 will be lots warmer than say 2009...
The Met Office say the Public can handle these biases.Ceratainly, the public can pay for all this biased research which is nice to contemplate , as you spend the night in your car on Haldon Hill, in a blizzzard. You can handle the difference in temperature! 17/01/10

A January Weather up-date from Mid-Devon:
The snow has melted, exept behind northfacing hedges. There is still risk of icy roads early in the mornings.Subsstantial rain has fallen and the waterways are very swollen. Robin’s forecast for the rest of the winter can be sen just below the recently publsihed summary by the met-office, who are a bit embarrassed about their ‘warming bias’. Forecasers are on a hiding to nothing, really. Although with huge bonuses, perhaps they cans urvive a bit of critisism for ‘failing to notice blizzards’.
Robin strongly advises us to take a good look out of the windows before travelling. 17.01.10

An Interview with Reliable Robin. 08.02.20

 For a long time our reporter had been wanting to ask Robin about what methods he uses for his fairly successful long-range forecasting. It has been very difficult to interview Robin. He is a modest man. It is also very difficult to know when he’s joking and when he’s serious, as he rarely smiles and keeps a very straight countryman’s face at all times. When the reporter arrived at Robin’s mid-Devon Farm he was very busy with some new-born lambs. A ewe had had triplets. Robin had ear-marked a rather well-built ewe with only a single lamb to foster one of the triplets onto. “ This skinny old girl, she can’t rear three!” he explained, whilst niftily catching the strongest-looking of the triplets.
 This proved a wise choice. The well-built ewe with the single lamb was not at all favourably inclined to add to her small family. “ She has bonded well with her own” muttered Robin,tying the ewe to the side of the pen. Our reporter pushed the young triplet towards the udder, Robin wielded a stick at the reluctant foster-mum and the triplet suckled noisily. The well-built adoptive mother eyed the new lamb feriousosly and Robin cornered off part of the pen for the little new-comer. “She sure will be some time before she takes to him... “ he commented “ the milk has to go right through the lamb first, and probably longer..”. The reporter agreed that it sometimes can take weeks to get a successful adoption but that it is worth the battle as all the lambs will do much better.
After this interlude they repaired to the farm-house for tea and Robin proved unusually chatty.
The reporter asked how he does short-term forecasts.
Robin answered that he looks out of the window!” In the evening”, he said,” I always go out, and the old saying Red Sky at night, shepherds delight is very true. If the sky is red, or if it clear and a nippy it will be a cold , dry night. You can feel a frost coming on in the clear air.
If it is windy and wet, coming from the west, it is likely to be the same in the morning. Unless it blows over,” he added. The reporter wondered whow he would know if it would blow over. “ Oh, I listen to the Met Office!” Robin replied. The reporter was bitterly disappointed. Robin hastily added that his arthritic knees also give him warning of a bad spell of cold and wet weather. “ But , the Met Office are very good at short term forecasts. If you listen to them AND look outside, you can be confident”, he added, with a rare smile.
“And what about the long-term forecasts” the reporter asked, eagerly. This is what the eldely farmer is famous for, after all.
“Don’t pay any attention to the met-office for those” said Robin. “ I have to get a sort of feel for the preceding season. Things also tend to average out over a period of time. Note that the 7 lean years had the 7 prosperous years to balance them out, so in a 20 year-period the climate would have recorded as overall normal, all the same. Naturally, the people would have been very upset during the Lean Years and blamed all sort of Climate Change factors, such as Gods and the like.” The difficulty is knowing when the changes are going to come. When have we had enough rainy summers? “ The reporter hoped he would tell her but he said he wasn’t sure yet. “ A lot of the old sayings are wrong!” he added for further information.” If you have had a good growing season, such as last summer, which was excellent for plants, there will be an abundancy of berries.This will be good for the birds, in a hard winter. But if we have a mild winter, it is good for the birds, anyway!” There is sometimes truth in the old saying “ What wasn’t made will not be needed” Robin carried on. Seeing the reporter look blank he explained that the saying refers to hay. A poor haymaking year is sometimes followed by an easy winter, and in that case the unmade hay will indeeed not be needed...Obviously, it refers to whole regions, he said, individual farmers, who choose a bad day to cut and loose the crop to a week’s persistant rain will not get a special, kind winter on their farm. No, farmers need to understand as much as possible about the weather so they make the best decicions. Only then the contractor is busy and can’t come because there are so many wise old farmers like Robin, all wanting their hay made at the same time. Besides, they all listen to the weeekly forecasts for that.
 “What about this next summer?” The reporter just had to ask.
Robin said she would have to come back in a couple of weeks or so. “ I have to see how we come out of this bloody winter first”, he added and offered her another cup of tea.

 Robin is coinsidering applying to the Governement to be their special Long Range Forecaster for South West England. Who can blame him? The Met Office have their bonuses all over their faces as they scurry home to bury their treasure before we notice.
The predicted a barbecue summer to be followed by a mild winter. Now they are sulking like children and refusing to play any more. Well, my boys and girls, you have had huge bonuses, now stand up like men and take the flak. After all, the March storm came in, on the last day of February. It hit Portugal, Spain and France, but you nearly got it right that time..Now a section of Australia is under water, but nobody can blame the Met Office for that.

Met Office abandons Long Range Forecasting: Will Reliable Robin take over?

floods in France look more charming than English floods.

The second half of March should see milder weahter, rain and a warming of the soil that will lead to an explosion of spring in April. Suddenly grass will coem. It will be a real Spring! April will be changeable, as ever, she is a fickle month.
May will start wet and chilly, Robin says, but go out warm and sunny, with early June having a good spell. If this is right it will be ideal for farmers, making silage.. After the first half of june, Robin says he’s yet not sure. He has to study the frog-spawn, it is very important. He will inform us of his thoughts as soon as possible.

 Reliable Robin’s Forecast for Spring and Early Summer 2010, issued 07.03.10
 March is here, Robin observes most adroitly. It is still very cold, the coldest winter for 30 years will linger on he says. We’re in a North-easterly airstream bringing in Scandinavian Conditions. Although March came in gently, it was only by a day and  a few miles that we missed the true lion. In France, Portugal and Spain, February exited rather dramatically with a hurricane that only just missed Britain.
Now it is bright but biting cold. There is no grass for the stock. We’re seeing Continental conditions. Although 4 in 10 people want to leave Britain because of the Climate, they forget that the Continent has lovley hot summers but much colder winters.

There is no need to further boost Tesco’s profits by buing a smart barbeque with 5 rings for only £ 1600. If there is a good day, just gather some sodden branches and try to make a small fire, that will save a lot of hard-earned cash. Jamie Oliver can provide recipies for grilling sausages with garlic and tomatoes in olive oil to serve with them. Jamie will demonstrate this from Southern Spain or perhaps Greece, where he will be very happy and content. We all love Jamie Oliver!

Everything is 3 weeks late. Summer may be 3 months late now. Look forward to the end of September, it will be glorious.This is written in mid-May so maybe Robin will be wrong. Let us hope so!

Robin is absolutly useless with his old-fashioned methods! 12.10.07 The Editor went in search of Robin, to tellhim that he’s been made redundant. Unusually he was not on his farm, where asmall crop of excellent quality hay could be seen tidily stocked. His sheep were grazing the short , burnt up grass, looking naked after shearing. His cowns looked fat and well despite the shortage of grass.
But where was Robin?
The Editor decided to look on the beach. Indeed, this is thought toi be Robin’s bicycle, the last remaining clue to his wherabouts.
We think that Robin is deeply upset by his failure and we have decided to retain him until we’re sure he won’t do something stupid.After all, he’s only just as hopeless as the met-office and considerably cheaper.
We will wait a while, by the bicycle, and see if we can speak to him.
An update of the bicycling vigil will follow tomorrow or so, depending on the weather, of course. In the meatime we recommend you find a forecaster using modern methods...

Robin’s useless summer prediction: